What Actually Moves Markets

Prices drift on positioning, but they lurch on news. A catalyst is any new piece of information that gives enough traders a reason to change their minds at the same time. Knowing the main catalysts — and roughly when they arrive — is the difference between being surprised by a move and being ready for it.

The heavyweight releases

• Central-bank decisions — interest-rate changes and the statements around them are the single biggest driver of currency and bond markets.
• Inflation data (CPI) — shapes what the market expects the central bank to do next, so it moves markets even between meetings.
• Employment data — US Non-Farm Payrolls is the most-watched monthly release, a regular source of large, fast moves.
• Growth and sentiment surveys (GDP, PMIs) — tell the market whether the economy is speeding up or slowing down.

Knowing the schedule is half the battle

Every one of these releases is scheduled in advance. That's what the economic calendar is for — and why ours flags which releases are high-impact and, for prop traders, which ones fall under news-trading restrictions. Trading without checking the calendar is like driving without looking at the road signs.