FIG 01 — RATE EXPECTATIONS
What the futures market is pricing for every upcoming FOMC decision — and how those odds are shifting.
Next decision Jul 28–29 · 1 day out · prices as of 2026-07-29 close
FIG 02 — JUL 28–29 DECISION ODDS
Solid = now · dark ghost = 1 day ago · light ghost = 1 week ago
FIG 03 — HOW EXPECTATIONS MOVED
CUT PROBABILITY · LAST 30 SESSIONS
IMPLIED POST-MEETING RATE
3.71%
vs current effective rate 3.63% · read directly from the first meeting-free fed funds contract
FIG 04 — MARKET-IMPLIED RATE PATH · EFFR 3.63% AS OF 2026-07-27
Source: 30-Day Fed Funds futures (CME) end-of-day closes · effective rate from FRED · probabilities computed with the standard 25bp-increment convention
FIG 05 — FIELD MANUAL
01
30-Day Fed Funds futures settle to 100 minus the month's average effective fed funds rate. If the August contract trades at 96.38, the market expects an average rate of 3.62% that month. Comparing contracts before and after each FOMC meeting reveals exactly how much easing or tightening is priced in.
02
The Fed moves in 25bp steps. If futures price 10bp of easing at a meeting, the market is effectively saying: 40% chance of a 25bp cut, 60% chance of a hold (0.4 × 25bp = 10bp). Our probabilities use this same convention as CME's FedWatch tool.
03
A 70% cut probability means little on its own — what moves markets is repricing. A jump from 40% to 70% in a week repositions rate-sensitive assets: FX pairs against the dollar, gold, index futures and bonds. That is why we show day-over-day and week-over-week deltas on every bar.
04
When priced odds near certainty (90%+), the decision itself is usually a non-event — the reaction comes from the statement and press conference. Surprises against heavily priced outcomes produce the largest moves. Ahead of FOMC days, expect position squaring, wider spreads, and prop-firm restrictions around the 2:00 PM ET release.